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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/28 11:07

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower, and wheat is 
flat to 4 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 490 points. The dollar index 
is 30 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are firmer with 
crude $0.18 higher. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with 
gold up $9.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing back from 
the early test of support as harvest expands. The daily export wire had sales 
of 207,140 metric tons sold to unknown, and 110,800 metric tons to Japan. 
Ethanol margins are steady with unleaded holding near the upper end of the 
recent range. Basis should see pressure this week with more bushels coming in 
to town. Weekly export inspections were ok at 806,327 metric tons, with weekly 
crop progress showing steady to slightly lower conditions with maturity and 
harvest ahead of average. On the December contract, trade has support at the 
$3.65 20-day moving average which are tested overnight then the $3.52 lower 
Bollinger band, with the recent high at $3.78 as resistance.


   Soybean trade is 6 to 7 cents lower with trade seeing further harvest 
pressure and long liquidation ongoing to start the week, even as we saw further 
export sales of 218,300 metric tons to unknown. Meal is 7.50 to 8.50 lower and 
oil is 5 to 15 points higher. The ral remains in the lower end of the range 
ahead of South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while 
Argentine farmer selling remains slow, with Brazil heavily sold ahead. Export 
offers continue to get tighter in availability as well with meal driving the 
product complex while strain on domestic logistics will increase as shipping 
pace needs to rise with export inspections a little disappointing at 1.211 
million metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady to lower 
conditions with maturity and harvest ahead of normal. The November chart has 
resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $10.46  3/4 which is also the fresh 
high with support the 20-day at $9.93 which we have tested this a.m.


   Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents higher at midday with light buying emerging 
after early weakness. Export competiveness remains about the same with the 
focus remaining on Europe dryness along with US plains progress. KC is at a 
68-cent discount to Chicago with spreads narrowing after the recent strength, 
while Minneapolis is back to a 18 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat 
drilling progress should expand across the plains short term with ok moisture 
for most for now but follow up rain lacking overall. Weekly export inspections 
are expected were good at 563,427 metric tons, with planting progress nearing 
halfway with emergence a little better than average. KC December chart 
resistance is the fresh high at $5.09, and support is the 20-day at $4.78, 
which we are just above with the lower Bollinger band the next level at $4.61.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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