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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/11 11:04
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7
to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 18 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7
to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 18 cents lower. The U.S. stock market
is mixed at midday with the S&P 11 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 54
points higher. The interest rate products are closed for the Holiday. Energy
trade is mixed with crude down 2.30 with natural gas up .28. Livestock trade is
mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 73.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade chopping just below
the fresh, post-report high scored Friday with a little broader weakness during
the day session. On the report, trade saw yields fall by .7 bushels per acre
(bpa) to 183.1 bpa, with carryout at 1.938 billion bushels (bb) down from 1.999
bb last month. Ethanol margins are narrowing as unleaded fades back to the
lower end of the range. Open weather for most of the Corn Belt is expected to
return this week, allowing remaining harvest to wrap up along with fall
fieldwork to start. Weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest near 95%
complete when released Tuesday. Weekly export inspections, released Tuesday
because of the Veterans Day holiday Monday, are expected to be in the 700,000
to 900,000 metric ton (mt) range. Basis action is starting to firm in the areas
that have went post-harvest but is still mostly flat. On the December chart,
the 20-day moving average is at $4.15 1/4, with the fresh high at $4.34 3/4.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents lower with early gains fading despite
firmer spread action as oil leads the product complex lower. Meal is .50 to
1.50 higher and oil is 85 to 95 points lower. On the report, yield fell by 1.4
bpa to 51.7 bpa with carryout falling 70 million bushels (mb) to 480 mb.
Remaining harvest should be wrapped up this week. The crop progress report
Tuesday is expected to show near 99% harvested. South America continues to
allow for good early season progress with some spots of long-term concerns.
Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 2.0 million metric tons
(mmt) to 2.25 mmt range. Basis is expected to remain flat to firmer in the
short term. On the January chart, trade has support at the 20-day moving
average $10.00, which we are consolidating above, with the Upper Bollinger Band
at $10.29, which we are back below after testing earlier.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 12 to 18 cents lower at midday with Chicago the downside
leader as the dollar return to the highs and keeps pressure on the trade and
has pushed us back to the bottom of the range to start the week. The Plains
should be drier this week after the recent rains, but emergence and conditions
should show further catching up on this week's progress report when released
Tuesday. MATIF wheat is weaker to start as well with the dollar near the summer
highs again. On the report, trade saw carryout rise 3 mb to 815 mb. Weekly
export inspections are expected to be in the 175,000 mt to 300,000 mt range
Tuesday. On the KC December chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band at
$5.55, which we are just below at midday, and resistance the 20-day moving
average at $5.77.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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